Championship Series: Week Five North American Preview

Guest Post by Skyrider50 and RixBT. Data comes from Team Elo Ratings can be found here

The Rocket League Championship Series approaches its fifth and final week with some things still to be determined. At the bottom of the standings, FlyQuest and Allegiance are in danger of being sent to the Relegation Playoffs, while at the top of the standings, four teams still have a shot at making it to Top 2 and clinching a spot at the International Finals. The biggest matchups of the season are lined up for this final week, which certainly looks like it’s going to be an exciting final week. Here’s our look at the matchups.

Match 1

Rogue (3-3) vs Ghost Gaming (4-1)

  • Rogue’s Insolences will face two of his former teammates: Zanejackey (from Mock-it Esports (NA) in Season One and Take 3 in Season Two) and Klassux and (from Genesis in Season Three).
  • Despite having a worse record, Rogue boasts higher goals, assists, saves per game than Ghost. Even in defense, Rogue averages less goals (2.00) per game than Ghost (2.11) at this point of the season. The match will also have the 2nd and 3rd best North American offenses facing off. (Rogue – 2.50 goals pg; Ghost – 2.26 gpg)
  • Perhaps the key will be in controlling the rival offensive. In shots against per game, Ghost Gaming allows 6.63 shots compared to Rogue’s 7.42. This suggests that Ghost Gaming has a more tight-knit midfield presence. As long as Ghost can shut down Rogue’s ability to take shots, they should be able to take the series.

Elo’s prediction: Ghost Gaming are Elo favorites over Rogue, with a 64.7 percent chance of winning the series.

Match 2

G2 Esports (4-1) vs Allegiance (0-5)

  • This week is Allegiance’s last chance. They must defeat G2 and FlyQuest this week to have a chance to get into the NA playoffs. G2, on the other hand, will be fighting for a Top 2 finish.
  • While having an almost identical goals per game record (2.05 for G2, 1.95 for Allegiance), the two teams are complete opposites on defense: while G2 allows only 1.68 goals against per game, Allegiance has a 2.90 goals against per game record. Thus, Allegiance is averaging almost 5 more conceded goals than G2 per series.

Elo’s prediction: G2 are noticeable favorites, with a 92.2 percent chance of beating Allegiance.

Match 3

Cloud9 (4-1) vs Renegades (1-5)

  • Cloud9 starters, Torment and Squishy, will face the team that eliminated their former team, Team Iris, from the Season Three qualifiers. Back then, Renegades (formerly Selfless Gaming) eliminated Iris team from League Play with a 3-1 win, and the team with the highest expectations headed into the season (Iris) never got to show what they were capable of.
  • Now, almost 7 months later, situation is completely different for all these players, with Cloud9 aiming for a Top 2 finish while Renegades has been sent to the Relegation Playoffs.
  • C9 currently has the best offense in NA with impressive numbers. Gimmick leads NA top scorerboards with 1.11 goals per game while Torment and SquishyMuffinz have equally impressive 0.89 and 0.83 goals per game, respectively. Renegades, on the other hand, is currently the 2nd worst defense in the region, averaging over 2.50 goals against per game.
  • Last week, we saw the return of Mijo in Renegades. Unfortunately, that return was met with a clean sweep from FlyQuest, ensuring that Renegades will remain in the bottom 2 of League Play and play in the Relegation Playoffs.

Elo’s prediction: Cloud 9 are heavy favorites in the series, with Elo giving them an 89.4 percent chance of winning the series.

Match 4

Allegiance (0-5) vs FlyQuest (2-4)

  • This match could define the last Playoff spot between these two teams. If Allegiance beats G2, FlyQuest is forced to fight for their spot in this matchup. If Allegiance is defeated by G2 Esports, they would still have a chance at taking 7th place in League Play, but they would join Renegades in the Relegation Playoffs, regardless of the outcome of this matchup.
  • A sweep over Allegiance will have the FlyQuest duo, CorruptedG and SadJunior, in the exact same position as last season (with Denial Esports), finishing with a 13-14 record in games, seeding 6th into the Playoffs. Back then, they eliminated G2 in the Round of 6, to eventually make it to the International Finals.
  • Also worth to keep an eye on FlyQuest’s CorruptedG, who is currently in contention for the Golden Striker accolade, averaging 1.00 goals per game. Facing the weakest defense in the region, this could be the perfect opportunity for him to grab that title.

Elo’s prediction: FlyQuest is the favored roster in this matchup, with a 78.3 percent chance at winning the series.

Match 5

G2 Esports (4-1) vs Ghost Gaming (4-1)

  • This series is likely to determine one of the Top 2 spots in North American League Play. Both of these teams have pulled off great upsets against other top NA teams in the previous weeks of League Play. G2 defeated Cloud9 in 4 games and NRG in five games, while Ghost Gaming beat NRG in 4 games.
  • Though Ghost Gaming has favorable stats in goals, assists, and shots per game, suggesting that their offense is better, G2 boasts a significantly higher amount of saves per game at 4.55 compared to Ghost Gaming at 3.74. Also, last week G2’s defense was proven ready for the big games, having a saving effectiveness of 69.44% against NRG shots.

Elo’s prediction: G2 Esports are the favorites in this tilt, with a 67.4 chance of defeating Ghost Gaming.

Match 6

NRG (4-2) vs Cloud9 (4-1)

  • If the previous series is set to define one of the two teams that will clinch one of the automatic bids to the International Finals, this series will most likely determine the second automatic bid. In a scenario where Cloud9 doesn’t sweep Renegades, or even loses against them, NRG will still have a chance for over-taking C9 in the league table.
  • Both teams will seek to pressure the opponents with their respective offensives. Bot Cloud9 and NRG are in the Top 3 of shots made per game and per series, although the effectiveness of those shots favors Cloud9, averaging 32.08% of shooting percentage, over NRG’s 26.63%.

Elo’s prediction: Cloud9 is the top team in North America according to Elo, and it gives them a 64.4 percent chance of taking down NRG Esports.